Top-down macro context across nine asset pools — liquidity regime, capital rotation, and sector-level opportunity identification.
A concise read of where capital is, where it's going, and what matters today.
Global liquidity sits in an expanding phase. Net liquidity at $22.7T with M2 supply growing +0.9% and Fed balance sheet at $6.7T. Dollar weakness (DXY −1.2%) and a positive yield curve (+0.53%) reinforce a risk-on backdrop.
BIST leads at +3.9% (EXIT phase), followed by Stocks (+2.9%) and Crypto (+1.9%). Energy is the weakest performer at −8.5%, signaling a probable rotation trigger out of commodities. Money market flows (+1.3%) remain in EXIT, supporting the risk-asset migration.
Top sector: Tech at +11.7%. Weakest: Natural Gas at −8.2%. Asset Recommendation Engine flags BUY on crypto (5-factor score 65/100, MID phase, 65% confidence) and SELL on energy (5-factor score 32/100, EXIT phase, 65% confidence).
Risk-on macro with selective rotation. Favor crypto majors (AAVE, LDO, LINK, RBR, XRP flagged) and tech-exposed equities. Avoid energy until EXIT phase completes. Confidence band: 65%.
The tide that lifts — or sinks — every asset.
Net Liquidity at $5.96T USD, risk appetite is high. Expanding M2 combined with weakening dollar creates a supportive environment for risk assets. Positive yield curve removes recession signal. Actionable: overweight equity and crypto exposure, underweight cash equivalents.
Follow the money across nine asset pools.
BIST leading with +3.9%, in EXIT phase. ENERGY (−8.5%) weakest performer — possible rotation signal. Capital migration trajectory points from commodities toward equities and crypto. Stay alert to BIST exit timing for rotation-out trigger.
Where each pool sits in the liquidity cycle.
41 sectors tracked — strongest winds and weakest currents.
Tech & Technology cluster dominates. Energy complex (Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Miners, Energy) uniformly weak — confirms CFI-2 rotation signal out of commodities.
Five-factor synthesis into actionable long/short candidates.
Crypto has moderate 5-factor score (65/100), MID phase — proceed with caution.
Energy has moderate SELL signal (5-factor score 32/100). Underperforming by 15.4%.
How the numbers are produced and what they mean.
Composite of M2 money supply (FRED), Federal Reserve balance sheet (FRED), Dollar Index (Finnhub), VIX (Finnhub), and US10Y−US02Y yield curve. Net Liquidity = Fed BS − TGA − RRP. Regime classification via 50-day rate-of-change.
7-day percent change across nine asset pools: Crypto (CoinGecko total market cap), Stocks (SPY proxy), Bonds (TLT), Metals (GLD/SLV blend), Bist (BIST-100 via EVDS), Forex (DXY inverse), Energy (XLE), Real Estate (VNQ), Money Market (BIL). Phase labels derived from 30D/7D divergence.
Ranks nine pools by composite score combining return, volume, and volatility. Phase timeline uses a 4-state classifier (Early / Mid / Late / Exit).
41 sectors aggregated across equities, crypto subcategories, and commodities. 30-day total return with volatility adjustment.
Five-factor gate system: Liquidity, USD direction, Capital destination, Sector confirmation, Phase timing. All five must pass for a GO verdict. 5-factor composite score 0–100.
FRED · CoinGecko · Binance · TCMB EVDS · DefiLlama · Finnhub. All sources are free/public APIs. Refresh cadence: L1 hourly, sector panel 15-minute.
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